AFPS Quarterly Report (96Q2)


Table of Contents

AFPS Quarterly Report FY96 Q2: January - March 1996

1. Introduction

The AWIPS Forecast Preparation System (AFPS) is being developed jointly by the Enhanced Forecaster Tools (EFT) Branch of the Forecast Systems Laboratory (FSL) Modernization Division and some of the staff of the NWS Office of Systems Development Techniques Development Laboratory (TDL).

Most of this report covers FSL work; "we" here generally refers to FSL. The TDL Activities section is based on information provided by Matt Peroutka of TDL.

2. Accomplishments

EFT staff concentrated their efforts on four principal activities this quarter:

2.1 The New GFE

This fall, we received over 400 participant comments and improvement suggestions at the last AFWG meeting and the FSL real-time exercise.
This quarter, we have spent a significant amount of time considering these comments. Most are being included in our next GFE development cycle. The specifications for the new GFE are now finished. It is available via mail or on the AFPS WWW page. Highlights of the changes are summarized below:

2.2 IFP Development and Implementation Plans

A Interactive Forecast Preparation (IFP) Development Alternatives meeting was held in Silver Spring on February 13-14. The meeting objectives were to establish consensus on agency IFP goals, understand the relationships among IFP goals and proposed alternatives, and to identify areas of agreement among the meeting's participants.

Three recommendations came out of the meeting:

The results of this meeting were presented at the MAR meeting on March 27th by Wendy Wolf. A resource assessment for all recommended solutions will be performed over the next few weeks. NWS will then consider which solution(s) best meets the agency's modernization goals.

(Most recipients of this report have received a copy of the IFP Development Alternatives meeting summary, issued by Wendy Wolf March 15th (copies are available)).

2.3 Initialization Quality

We made extensive tests of our initial surface forecasts derived directly from numerical weather model output, by comparing them to observations at 100 SAO stations around the lower 48 states. We find that in many cases the initial forecasts are suitable for preliminary operational use in AFPS. Test results have also been used to improve forecast generation.
A report describing exactly how the surface forecasts are derived from model output is available by mail, and will soon be available on the AFPS WWW pages. The report also shows the test results comparing these automatic forecasts to surface observations (Wier).

2.4 Exploratory Product Development

Graphical Forecast Viewer (GFV)
We have been investigating the creation of new graphical/gridded forecast products and their dissemination. We currently are using Java-based interactivity on the World Wide Web (WWW). This technology is now available to almost everyone with a personal computer.
The GFV allows interactive graphical weather forecast viewing using a Java enabled web browser. The display consists of a two-dimensional spatial view of the data, a temporal view, a color legend, and a control panel. The displayed weather forecast is generated from the AFPS database data. (Bacco, Romberg)
Anyone with a Java-enabled web browser (e.g., Netscape version 2) can access our graphical forecast viewer from our home page.
Grid-Based Text Formatters
A recommendation from the (IFP) Development Alternatives meeting requested FSL grid-based formatters exploration. As we mentioned in the last report, the matrix-based text formatters designed for ICWF do not work well with the gridded database; i.e., the AFPS forecaster includes more detail than the matrix-based formatters can extract.
Preliminary work using a rule-based language (CLIPS) has been started, and initial results look promising. The forecasts are representative of the gridded data, the words are modifiable, and details can be presented. An example of a forecast is shown at the bottom of this page. (Romberg)

2.5 Other Activities

An FSL lab-wide AFPS Technical Review was held on January 16th (entire AFPS staff included).

We conducted performance analysis of the AFPS level 2a system to discover where bottlenecks occurred. The findings will be incorporated into our new design. (LeFebvre).

AFPS level 2a was shown at the 12th AMS IIPS conference held in Atlanta during the week of January 29th (Mathewson, Wakefield).

Papers titled Using the AWIPS Forecast Preparation System (Mathewson) and Using numerical model output to provide initial forecasts of surface weather for the AFPS (Wier, Wakefield) were presented at the 12th AMS IIPS conference.

Joyce Watkins, our new quality assurance specialist, was hired in February. She is responsible for user documentation and training materials.

An overall project and documentation plan for the next year was created (Howard, Watkins).

Work has begun on sampling gridded forecast data to determine representative values for areas and local effects (Longstaff).

3. Presentations/Visitors/Travel

Visitors:

Travel and presentations:

4. TDL Activities

TDL and FSL developers worked toward integrating TDL's MOS ingest and product formatting code into the AFPS development system. Almost all of the source code has been checked in. A few of the programs have been successfully built.

TDL continued work expanding the product suite into aviation and fire weather areas. Product generation software for TAFs has been successfully tested, and a graphic editor for aviation elements is under development.

TDL developers worked closely with the staff at the Boise Forecast Office (BOI) to design an approach to Fire Weather Forecasts generation. These techniques will be developed jointly by TDL and BOI.

Work continued to enhance the Zone Forecast program to generate local effect phrases.

5. Plans Next Quarter

Our main effort for the next quarter will be the detailed design for the new GFE. The design should be finished late in the quarter.

By the end of the quarter, we will have finished our investigation of grid-based product formatters.

We will enhance the graphical forecast viewer (GFV) to include vector, discrete, and precipitation fields. The GFV will be redesigned to improve performance.

Initialization algorithms will continued to be improved.

The FSL AFPS Team

Corby Bacco Programmer (database, network, new products)
303-938-2067
bacco@fsl.noaa.gov

Dave Howard Quality Assurance Specialist (testing, bug tracking, configuration management)
303-938-2088
dhoward@fsl.noaa.gov

Tom LeFebvre Meteorologist/Programmer (design, graphic editors, database)
303-938-2086
lefebvre@fsl.noaa.gov

Jennifer Longstaff Programmer (graphics, data samplers)
303-938-2069
longstaff@fsl.noaa.gov

Mark Mathewson Project Manager -- Meteorologist/Lead Designer/Programmer
303-938-2061
mathewson@fsl.noaa.gov

Bob Mayer Programmer (user interface, design, graphics)
303-938-2075
rmayer@fsl.noaa.gov

Mike Romberg Programmer (graphics, user interface, new products, network)
303-938-2084
romberg@fsl.noaa.gov

Joyce Watkins Quality Assurance Specialist (user documentation, training material)
303-938-2089
watkins@fsl.noaa.gov

Stuart Wier Programmer (initialization, interpolation)
303-938-2078
wier@fsl.noaa.gov

Our fax number is 303-497-3096.

Information about AFPS and the EFT Branch is available on the World-Wide Web via URL http://www-md.fsl.noaa.gov/eft/EFTHome.html.

Please direct comments on or questions about this report to Mark Mathewson.

 

Last modified: Nov 13, 2003