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PCU 1: IFPS Vision Instructional Component 1.2 The IFPS/NDFD Vision Frequently Asked Questions Q1.) What is "meteorological consistency" ? A1.) Meteorological consistency is an important concept in developing gridded forecasts because it defines the extent to which the grids reflect the actual weather (along with terrain and other real-world influences) but not things like County Warning Area (CWA) boundaries, counties, or other non-weather-related causes of discontinuities in forecast grids. You may want to take a second look at the sample images in the training session or look at real-time grids on the official NDFD page at http://165.92.30.124:8080/ndfd_images Note: You may need to enter this URL on a computer connected to the AWIPS WAN. Q2.) Who manages the work on a shift ? A2.) The lead forecaster manages the staff on a particular shift and needs to determine how many people are devoted to warnings/nowcasts (0-6 hours), short-term forecasts (6-24 hours), and long-term (1-7 days) forecasts and where those divisions in time are located. The items indicated in ( ) are examples and may be changed to reflect the weather of the day. One of the most important aspects for the lead forecaster to monitor is the blending of the time periods to ensure forecast continuity and consistency. Q3.) How long does it take to do the extended (days 4-7) ? A3.) It usually takes a forecaster 2 to 3 hours to collaborate the extended forecast with surrounding offices and create final grids. Q4.) What's the big impact in changing from coordination calls to collaboration ? A4.) Collaboration starts before you finish the forecast process. It may even start when you arrive on-shift if other forecasters are already into the process. This is superior to coordination calls because it allows you to change your thinking (or grids) before the time when a consensus of grids would be reached. Significant differences, in the previous forecast process, usually became evident near the deadline for product issuance and may not have allowed enough time to make changes to the forecast package. Collaboration also allows forecasters the opportunity to learn from other forecasters and produce better forecasts. Q5.) Is this Interactive Forecast Preparation System (IFPS)/National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) forecast process more work or less work for forecasters ? A5.) If a forecaster starts with a well-forecasted and well-collaborated set of forecast grids, then the tasks should be reasonable during a particular shift. It does require that shifts of forecasters act as a team from shift-to-shift and not only during a particular shift. This highlights the need for the entire office (all staff) to appreciate the important role they can play in having smooth transitions from one forecast shift to the next. At least initially, it will be more work as forecasters learn new forecast methodologies, grid editing tools, collaboration skills, and how the NDFD works to integrate grids from local offices. Q6.) How will training on collaboration versus coordination be delivered ? A6.) This training need is relatively new and is under development. It will help to communicate the lessons learned from office in the NDFD prototype clusters. The mechanisms by which collaboration occurs will also change. this training may be delivered during workshops, classes, teletraining, or online collaboration sessions with IFPS Intersite Coordination (ISC) Grids or FX-Collaborate from FSL. Q7.) Does the National Weather Service Training Center Forecaster Development Class address the new approach required by IFPS ? A7.) The class materials have been converted to distance learning web content. Currently there is no Forecaster Development residence course. The last one was in 1997. The FDC is for the most part a distant learning course with the exception of going to a Distance Learning Operations residence course on radar warning decision-making at Boulder. Information on the Forecaster Development Program (FDP) along with the PDS/PCUs/ICs can be found at: http://www.nwstc.noaa.gov/nwstrn/d.ntp/fdp/ As far as integrating IFPS training into the intern program, it is currently mentioned in the FDP PDS, PCU 2, IC 2.2 (AWIPS Operations) that interns should complete all local training that pertains to AWIPS and it specifically mentions IFPS. At the time we wrote the requirements for FDP, there were no specific ICs that pertained to IFPS. Comments or Questions on the New Forecaster Development Program ?Contact Mike Dion at National Weather Service Headquarters or Jerry Griffin at the NWSTC Q8.) How will FX-Collaborate work ? A8.) FX-Collaborate software displays D2D data and imagery. Servers will be located at RFCs to allow for combinations of WFOs to collaborate. This is currently in development and testing in the NDFD cluster offices. FX- Collaborate includes a text chat function, the capability to draw and annotate over synchronously-viewed imagery, and will allow multiple offices to see what they are collaborating. There is also a built-in capability that allows a collaboration session user to show others a graphic file (JPEG or GIF) on-the-fly. This could be an effective way to share products that only one office may have. Telephones would be used for audio if needed. Q9.) What do we do with the forecaster who knows that he's right, everybody else is wrong, and does not want to collaborate ? A9.) Forecasters on the next shift would have an increased workload to adjust the grids back to be meteorologically-consistent with the current weather, current shift forecast, and adjacent offices' forecasts. So, it affects the entire office staff and can result in greater workloads for subsequent shifts. Q10.) Collaboration is a process. Do we (WFOs ) need training on how to lead a discussion to a consensus ? A10.) Yes. Collaboration training is currently under development and will include strategies to get to final grid solutions. Q11.) What are the collaboration deadlines ? A11.) The central cluster does not work with collaboration deadlines. Forecasters realize that certain grids (like the extended forecast) need to be sent to the NDFD server by 1745 UTC. To date, forecasters have been able to finish the collaboration process, grid creation, and send the grids to the server on-time. Q12.) When does chat room coordination start and end ? A12.) Chat room coordination is a continuous process. An office usually logs into a short-term or long-term chat to collaborate and stays logged-in from shift-to-shift. Using the chat tool, it's possible to trace back the reasoning behind the forecasts from previous shifts if it's not communicated in a shift-change briefing. Q13.) How does HPC participate in coordination sessions ? A13.) HPC has involvement with the prototype cluster offices with QPF, mid-range (day 4-7) and a meso-analyst's forecasts. Q14.) Do chat sessions need a leader ? A14.) Chats may work better with a leader. NCEP/HPC is considering leading event-based collaborations for particular weather systems in the day 3-7 period. Typically they would involve 4-8 offices or national centers. Initially, the task seemed insurmountable but the prototype offices are adjusting their strategies and working to improve them with NCEP. Other chat sessions could be hosted by the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) or the Tropical Prediction Center (TPC). Q15.) Who owns QPF grids ? A15.) Currently, WFOs produce them. The current plan is for the grids to be sent to HPC. The HPC then would oversee the mosaic production and QC before providing them to the NDFD. This is still subject to additional changes but is the most-current thinking at this time. Q16.) Why not have separate local and national databases ? A16.) The main reason is consistency. It's important for the grids to flow to the central database and be consistent from the national scale to the local scales. Ensuring consistency is important. Q17.) What does an NDFD prototype office schedule look like ? A17.) Here is the current Charleston, WV WFO schedule for NDFD/IFPS Operations. Note:"Ir" stands for operational research shift and may be designated as an X-shift at other offices.
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